The diversity of regions within the Northwestern Federal District – shaped by historical, geographical, natural, climatic, socio-economic, and socio-cultural factors – results in marked differentiation not only in their demographic situations but also in the trajectories of demographic change. Sound territorial development management requires understanding of both retrospective trends and future prospects of population dynamics. Furthermore, it is essential to account for the effects of government socio-economic and demographic policies, notably pension reform and pro-natalist measures, on the evolution of different age groups. This study aims to assess the past population dynamics of the regions of the Northwestern Federal District and their short- to medium-term prospects, with a focus on changes in age structure. The analysis draws on official data from Rosstat. The main research methods include retrospective analysis of permanent resident population change, cohort-component population projections, and a typology of regions based on population dynamics. The study identifies region types according to both retrospective (2000–2024) and prospective (up to 2035 and 2045) population trends, including the contributions of major age groups (below working age, working age, and above working age). Comparing the regional typologies across different time periods makes it possible to assess likely population trends over the coming decades. Continued population growth is expected in the Nenets Autonomous Area and the Leningrad Region. Sustained population decline is projected for the Arkhangelsk, Vologda, Murmansk, Novgorod, and Pskov regions, as well as the Republic of Karelia and the Komi Republic. Stability at baseline levels or a shift from growth to decline is expected in the Kaliningrad Region and Saint Petersburg
Keywords
Population dynamics, retrospective analysis, demographic projection, regional typology, Northwestern Federal District regions